Neumann, James E, Price, Jason, Chinowsky, Paul, Wright , Len, Lindsay, Ludwig R, Streeter, Richard, Jones, Russell, Smith, Joel B., Perkins, William, Jantarasami, Lesley, Martinich, Jeremy
Changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level, and coastal storms will likely increase the vulnerability of infrastructure across the United States. Using four models that analyze vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation, this paper estimates impacts to roads, bridges, coastal properties, and urban drainage infrastructure and investigates sensitivity to varying greenhouse gas emission scenarios, climate sensitivities, and global climate models. The results suggest that the impacts of climate change in this sector could be large, especially in the second half of the 21st century as sea-level rises, temperature increases, and precipitation patterns become more extreme and affect the sustainability of long-lived infrastructure. Further, when considering sea-level rise, scenarios which incorporate dynamic ice sheet melting yield impact model results in coastal areas that are roughly 70 to 80 % higher than results that do not incorporate dynamic ice sheet melting. The potential for substantial economic impacts across all infrastructure sectors modeled, however, can be reduced by cost-effective adaptation measures. Mitigation policies also show potential to reduce impacts in the infrastructure sector – a more aggressive mitigation policy reduces impacts by 25 to 35 %, and a somewhat less aggressive policy reduces impacts by 19 to 30 %. The existing suite of models suitable for estimating these damages nonetheless covers only a small portion of expected infrastructure sector effects from climate change, so much work remains to better understand impacts on electric and telecommunications networks, rail, and air transportation systems. In addition, the effects of climate-induced extreme events are likely to be important, but are incompletely understood and remain an emerging area for research.
This chapter describes New York State’s climate and the climate changes the state is likely to face during this century. The chapter contains: 1) an overview; 2) observed climate trends in means and extremes; 3) global climate model (GCM) validation, methods, and projections (based on long-term average changes, extreme events, and qualitative descriptions); and 4) conclusions and recommended areas for further research. To facilitate the linking of climate information to impacts in the eight ClimAID sectors, the state is divided into seven regions. Three appendices describe the projection methods, outline a proposed program for monitoring and indicators, and summarize the possible role of further downscaling climate model simulations for future assessments.
Butler, Martha P., Reed, Patrick M., Fisher-Vanden, Karen, Keller, Klaus, Wagener, Thorsten
Climate stabilization efforts must integrate the actions of many socio-economic sectors to be successful in meeting climate stabilization goals, such as limiting atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to be less than double the pre-industrial levels. Estimates of the costs and benefits of stabilization policies are often informed by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of the climate and the economy. These IAMs are highly non-linear with many parameters that abstract globally integrated characteristics of environmental and socio-economic systems. Diagnostic analyses of IAMs can aid in identifying the interdependencies and parametric controls of modeled stabilization policies. Here we report a comprehensive variance-based sensitivity analysis of a doubled-CO2 stabilization policy scenario generated by the globally-aggregated Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE). We find that neglecting uncertainties considerably underestimates damage and mitigation costs associated with a doubled-CO2 stabilization goal. More than ninety percent of the states-of-the-world (SOWs) sampled in our analysis exceed the damages and abatement costs calculated for the reference case neglecting uncertainties (1.2 trillion 2005 USD, with worst case costs exceeding $60 trillion). We attribute the variance in these costs to uncertainties in the model parameters relating to climate sensitivity, global participation in abatement, and the cost of lower emission energy sources.
Climate Change Advisory Committee, Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
A report which identifies practical implementation strategies to address climate change impacts on Pennsylvania's human environment, including the built environment, and natural resources. This report is the first statewide effort addressing the need for climate change adaptation planning in Pennsylvania.
Adams, Peter, Steeves, Jennifer, Ashe, Brian, Firth, John, Rabb, Ben
This report presents an initial step toward understanding how climate change may disrupt the telecommunications and data center utilities sectors. It also discusses how resilience can be fostered and recommends next steps.
Harvell, C. Drew, Mitchell, Charles E, Ward, Jessica R, Altizer, Sonia, Dobson, Andrew P, Ostfeld, Richard S, Samuel, Michael D
Infectious diseases can cause rapid population declines or species extinctions. Many pathogens of terrestrial and marine taxa are sensitive to temperature, rainfall, and humidity, creating synergisms that could affect biodiversity. Climate warming can increase pathogen development and survival rates, disease transmission, and host susceptibility. Although most host-parasite systems are predicted to experience more frequent or severe disease impacts with warming, a subset of pathogens might decline with warming, releasing hosts from disease. Recently, changes in El Niño–Southern Oscillation events have had a detectable influence on marine and terrestrial pathogens, including coral diseases, oyster pathogens, crop pathogens, Rift Valley fever, and human cholera. To improve our ability to predict epidemics in wild populations, it will be necessary to separate the independent and interactive effects of multiple climate drivers on disease impact.
A guide with insights into why people respond to risk the way they do. Coastal managers will find examples and tips for working with residents to explore solutions and make decisions to improve the resilience of coastal communities. The guide is is the ninth in a series of publications developed to bring information to coastal managers about the use of social science tools in their field of work.
This report identifies key design principles to guide flood-resistant construction in urban area. It provides an overview of regulatory requirements for construction in flood zones under the National Flood Insurance Program, and explores the impacts of flood-resistant construction standards on built form and the creation of a vibrant streetscape and public realm. The report also lays out recommendations for how zoning can incorporate these principles to enable more versatile and desirable design solutions for flood-resistant construction.
United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
A website where users can explore the impacts of climate change by region and sector. The site also includes links to adaptation resources such as tools for public officials and federal and EPA programs.